As an EU candidate country, Moldova faces political uncertainty with the growing activity of pro-Russian politicians.
The prosecutor’s office in Moldova submitted an indictment on April 24 against Evghenia Guțul, a Governor (Bashkan) of the Gagauz autonomy in Moldova. The Gagauz people are an Orthodox Turkic-speaking nation that settled in Moldova during the late 18th and early 19th centuries. The leader of the autonomy, who was also a secretary in 2020-2022 of the banned Șor party belonging to the pro-Russian oligarch Ilan Șor, is accused of transporting cash from Russia to Moldova. The funds were used to organize anti-government protests. Guțul denies all charges. Moreover, she claims the case against her was fabricated by Maia Sandu, the Moldovan President, and the ruling political group, the Action and Solidarity Party (PAS). However, Guțul admits to having pro-Russian sympathies. She also frequently visits Moscow.
Why is this fact so important? Less than two years ago, on June 23, 2022, EU leaders granted Moldova the status of a candidate country for EU membership. Moldova, the poorest European country, has been ruled by pro-Western politicians for two years. The country was rewarded for its reforms, which included making Moldova independent of Russian energy resources.
Moscow’s aggression against Ukraine, which started on February 24, 2022, played a role in the EU leaders’ decision. Whatever the exact reasons were for Brussels approving Moldovan integration, it quickly became evident that the Kremlin would attempt to sabotage Chisinau’s pro-Western ambitions.
Recently, Transnistria, a self-proclaimed republic within Moldova where Russian troops posing as peacekeepers, was the primary suspect as a source in a way to impact the pro-Western ambitions of the Moldovan negatively. The global media had warned against the possibility of Transnistria being used as a means for Russian provocation, which could destabilize the country’s situation as it seeks to join the European Union. Although there have been several incidents, no severe consequences have arisen, at least for now.
Moldova is set to undergo a series of challenges in the coming months. Presidential elections are due for October, along with a referendum on the country’s potential accession to the European Union. Additionally, parliamentary elections have been announced for the middle of next year. Moscow is expected to view these events as an opportunity to steer Chisinau away from its pro-Western stance. Meanwhile, Gagauzia – much like Transnistria – has been a valuable tool for Russia to destabilize the political situation in Moldova for years. Putin will likely use Gaugazia as a political instrument in the coming years, both now and in 2025, to further his objectives.
Meeting in Moscow
On April 21, 2024, the Pobeda (Victory) voting bloc was established in a hotel in Moscow by pro-Russian parties from Moldova associated with Ilan Șor. This oligarch was convicted in his country of corruption and financial crimes and fled to Israel in 2019 to avoid justice. Now, he is the Head of the newly formed bloc, while Guțul serves as the executive secretary of the “Pobeda” Political Council.
The close cooperation between Șor and Guțul is not surprising, as it is thanks to Șor that Guțul became governor (Bashkan). Just a few weeks before the 2023 Gagauz elections, Guțul was an unknown lawyer. He then ran as a candidate for the Șor party in the governor’s elections and managed to win in the second round. At that time, the party was mainly known for organizing regular anti-government protests financed by Șor, who was in exile.
Upon becoming governor, Guțul immediately focused her attention on Moscow, accusing Chisinau of wanting to cut off ties with Russia, their partner. Here’s the quote: – “We share historical ties and a partnership that has been and will be useful.” She also announced that she would seek Russia’s help if Moldova tried to unite with Romania, as the two countries were once part of the same state during the interwar period.
In other words, the Gagauz Bashkan pursues a pro-Kremlin policy and a confrontational stance towards Moldova’s pro-Western authorities, including President Maia Sandu and the PAS party, which holds the parliamentary majority.
It’s worth noting that Guțul has visited Moscow twice since the beginning of this year. During her visits, she was received by Vladimir Putin and the Chairman of the Federation Council, Valentina Matviyenko. I have already mentioned that in April of this year, she also participated in the establishment of a pro-Russian electoral bloc called Pobeda.
It is now a matter of consideration whether Moscow will take advantage of the potential prosecution of Evghenia Guțul in a Moldovan court and how the Gagauz residents might react to it. There is a possibility of surprise, as although Guțul is the leader of the autonomy, she is also a protégé of the oligarch Șor, which everyone may not like.
Gagauzia as Moldavian Donbas?
Some media reports warn that Gagauzia may become a significant issue for Chisinau, similar to Transnistria. However, the comparison of Gagauz’s autonomy to the Ukrainian Donbas seems to be exaggerated. It is because Gagauz people make up only 5 percent of the population of the Republic of Moldova. Furthermore, unlike Donbas, Gagauzia’s autonomy is not bordering the Russian Federation but is enclosed by the Moldovan state. The closest borders are with Romania and Ukraine, so potential separatists cannot expect military support. Additionally, Moldovan officials regularly visit Gagauzia to meet with local activists and government representatives to reduce Governor Guțul’s anti-Chisinau rhetoric.
Moscow will likely attempt to manipulate public opinion and use Gagauzia for propaganda purposes leading up to the autumn elections. They may argue again that the Russian-speaking population is being persecuted, as the majority of Gagauzians speak Russian. Pro-Kremlin propaganda has already been paying significant attention to Gagauzia and its leader. Guțul’s short conversation with Putin took up a surprisingly large space in the Russian media. Gaugazian leader was also a guest on one of Russian television’s leading current affairs programs, “Evening with Solovyov.”
There is no doubt that Gagauzia is becoming a valuable tool for the Kremlin to prepare the ground for the upcoming Moldova presidential elections and the EU referendum. Likely, both Russia and the principal of Evghenii Guțul- Ilan Șor will make every effort to reduce support for Maia Sandu, who is running for a second term, and encourage people to boycott the referendum to prove it is pointless to partake in them. It is difficult to predict how effective these actions will be. However, the current polls suggest that Igor Dodon, the former Head of State and leader of the socialist party – pro-Russian- has a greater chance of winning in the second round than the pro-Western Maia Sandu.
Finally, it’s worth mentioning that developments on the Ukrainian front could impact Moldovan politics and votes. If Russia experiences success, pro-Kremlin politicians will gain power. If Russia fails, then Chisinau’s pro-Western position will strengthen its course.
Maria Przełomiec for belsat.eu
Translated by PEV
The opinions and thoughts expressed in the text reflect only the author's views.
